Shallow Dives

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that tells you the optimal size for any bet or investment. Developed in 1956, it maximizes long-term growth while avoiding ruin—but it requires knowing your edge and the discipline to follow it.

Two investors with identical portfolios and identical returns can end up with wildly different outcomes—all because of the order in which their gains and losses occurred. Understanding sequence of returns risk is crucial for anyone approaching retirement.